The US Dollar Index has been traversing a volatile range since the FOMC meeting March 18/15, which produced an intermediate term sell signal from my momentum program (see recent black down arrow referencing 98.715). $DX_F produced a wide-range liquidation bar (100-94.76) of ~6 points — the high/low prices referenced are the important short-intermediate term pivots to watch. The longer it takes for DX_F to challenge the par level (100), the more probable it will be that we can expect a retrace to the reference low price sub 95 level on the chart. The other possibility is that we see a rapid retest to the 100 level in the near term. If this happens we have to wait and see whether price moves above 100 and gets accepted (2-3 days or a weekly close), or whether it goes >100 and gets rejected back into the 100-95 bar range established on 3/18/15, which would validate ongoing corrective odds in this market. And the same logic holds true for the 94.75 reference low. However, it is quite possible that the ‘late’ longs got wiped out and we’re seeing a short term pause, prior to another move higher, given the chronic weakness of the Eurocurrency. If I was trading the DX_F, I would be patient here, see if the market returns to the 95 level and holds, for a supportive re-entry. My system generated a short entry on 3/18 at 98 level, and that is my position to date. The system has performed well in $DX_F: 1 contract traded, ex-slippage/comission
3yr back test: (2012-2015)
Total Signals: 16
Win Rate:62.5%
Avg $ Winning Trade: 2424$
Avg $ Losing Trade: 730$
$Win:$Loss = 3.32
Largest Win$: 9355
Largest Loss$: 1735
Futures Trading 