The program flipped on the Lumber trade today, and I went long a 5 lot. Here is a closer look at the day chart below, showing all trades in 2016:
LBS has a 60% 10 yr win rate, which is an ‘extra-ordinary’ win rate. This market is a year-round trading vehicle, ~10 trades/yr. Payout ratio = 2.20x. The market has suffered 1 annual loss – in 2014 of -$5000, trading 4-5 lots. This is a ‘controlled’ market in response to the MST program and a stalwart market. I like the trade location here as per the most recent blue up arrow. Anything below the most recent pivot on the chart at ~300 is the stop. The trend in Lumber is still up in 2016 – and given the moves across most of the commodity space, specifically softs – I like the R/R on the trade here.
Futures Trading 